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Salford City vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
Preview
18:45
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
4/13/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 41Peninsula Stadium
Big match
56%
Salford City
model favours
56%24%20%

Salford City score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City56%
×Draw24%
Cheltenham20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.68
Cheltenham
0.89

Salford City creates 89% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.95
Cheltenham
1.01

allows per match

Salford City
0.77
Cheltenham
1.41

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less
Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
80%
Salford City or Cheltenham
76%
Draw or Cheltenham
44%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
31%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
81%
Salford City 2+ goals
50%
Salford City 3+ goals
24%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
59%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
22%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
74%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.68

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Salford City scores more
56%
level
24%
Cheltenham scores more
20%

Salford City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Salford City sit 4, Cheltenham 18 in the table
  • Salford City fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Salford City
Attack-heavy
Cheltenham
Balanced
52%Possession48%
67%Pass accuracy65%
12.9Shots10.5
1.73xGBiggest gap1.08
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Salford CityCheltenham

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

1
Salford City
2
Draws
4
Cheltenham
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 57%
2–31–11–22–10–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WLLWD
Cheltenham
WLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salford City vs Cheltenham — Match Preview

Salford City face Cheltenham on April 13, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Salford City host Cheltenham at Peninsula Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.