Cheltenham 3–2 Salford City: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Salford City

G. Miller 90'

H. Ashfield 84'

I. Hutchinson 51' (pen)

Z. Awe 76'

J. Grant 6'

2/21/2026

League Two · Round 34Whaddon Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Cheltenham33%

×Draw24%

Salford City43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.58

Cheltenham

1.35

Salford City

1.58

Salford City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.13

creates per match

1.55

1.61

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.13

Salford City

1.55

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.61

Salford City

1.58

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more

Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

57%

Cheltenham or Salford City

76%

Draw or Salford City

67%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

14%

Salford City wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

74%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

39%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

15%

Salford City 1+ goals

79%

Salford City 2+ goals

47%

Salford City 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

43%

Salford City (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Salford City attack 1.55 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cheltenham scores more

33%

level

24%

Salford City scores more

43%

Salford City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Grant

Salford City · M

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Ben Woodburn

6'

J. Grant↳ J. Austerfield

14'

Kadeem Harris

43'

D. Udoh← K. Harris

48'

Luke Garbutt

51'

I. HutchinsonPenalty

53'

B. Cooper← J. Austerfield

64'

G. Miller← J. Davison

64'

A. Jude-Boyd← S. Sherring

71'

73'

73'

73'

76'

Z. Awe↳ A. Dorrington

82'

C. Deeming← J. Tomkinson

82'

H. Ashfield← L. Young

84'

H. Ashfield

88'

G. Nurse← J. Thomas

90+3'

B. Woodburn←

90'

G. Miller↳ C. Deeming

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamSalford

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots6

1.30Expected Goals (xG)0.69

7Corners3

8Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots6

5On Target4

5Off Target1

3Blocked1

11Inside Box5

2Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

386Total Passes313

282Accurate Passes199

73%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

5Offsides1

Match Recap: Cheltenham vs Salford City

Cheltenham beat Salford City 3-2 in League Two on February 21, 2026.

Goals: J. Grant (6'), I. Hutchinson (51' pen), Z. Awe (76'), H. Ashfield (84'), G. Miller (90').

Cheltenham controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Whaddon Road in Cheltenham.

Cheltenham vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cheltenham vs Salford City