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Cheltenham vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Salford City
Salford City
L. Sercombe 41'
S. Long 3'
3/20/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 37Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Cheltenham33%
×Draw24%
Salford City43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.35
Salford City
1.58

Salford City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.13
Salford City
1.55

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.61
Salford City
1.58

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more
Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
57%
Cheltenham or Salford City
76%
Draw or Salford City
67%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
14%
Salford City wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
74%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
39%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
15%
Salford City 1+ goals
79%
Salford City 2+ goals
47%
Salford City 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
43%
Salford City (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Salford City attack 1.55 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cheltenham scores more
33%
level
24%
Salford City scores more
43%

Salford City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
L. SercombeCheltenhamCheltenham · M
7.5

Match Events

3'
S. Long↳ B. Tozer
16'
Liam Sercombe
41'
L. Sercombe
46'
E. Dieseruvwe← J. Wilson
46'
T. James← D. Bernard
46'
B. Thomas-Asante← R. Gotts
64'
Conor Thomas
83'
E. Chapman← C. Wright
84'
A. Williams← A. May
88'
F. Azaz← S. Smith

Possession

36%Cheltenham

Shots

15Cheltenham

Pass accuracy

42%Cheltenham

Statistics

CheltenhamSalford
Overview
36%Possession64%
15Total Shots4
4Corners3
14Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots4
5On Target0
7Off Target3
3Blocked1
10Inside Box1
5Outside Box3
Passing
36%Possession64%
282Total Passes485
140Accurate Passes341
50%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls9
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Cheltenham vs Salford City

Cheltenham beat Salford City 2-0 in League Two on March 20, 2021.

Goals: S. Long (3'), L. Sercombe (41').

Salford City controlled possession (64%) and registered 4 shots to 15.

The match was played at Jonny-Rocks Stadium in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.