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Salford City vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
K. Harris 90'
G. Miller 56'
8/29/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 6Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City56%
×Draw24%
Cheltenham20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.68
Cheltenham
0.89

Salford City creates 89% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.95
Cheltenham
1.01

allows per match

Salford City
0.77
Cheltenham
1.41

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less
Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
80%
Salford City or Cheltenham
76%
Draw or Cheltenham
44%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
31%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
81%
Salford City 2+ goals
50%
Salford City 3+ goals
24%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
59%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
22%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
74%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.68

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Salford City scores more
56%
level
24%
Cheltenham scores more
20%

Salford City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
K. HarrisSalford CitySalford City · M
8.5

Match Events

37'
Oliver Turton
46'
M. Butcher← J. Austerfield
46'
C. Stockton← J. Bird
55'
R. Broom← J. Martin
56'
G. Miller↳ A. Jude-Boyd
61'
Kadeem Harris
67'
H. Mnoga← O. Turton
67'
N. Siri← K. Cesay
76'
Tommy Backwell
76'
T. Backwell← G. Miller
90'
K. Harris↳ R. Longelo-Mbule

Possession

69%Salford

Shots

26Salford

Pass accuracy

60%Salford

Statistics

SalfordCheltenham
Overview
69%Possession31%
26Total Shots5
14Corners1
14Fouls14
Shots
26Total Shots5
7On Target3
11Off Target2
8Blocked0
12Inside Box4
14Outside Box1
Passing
69%Possession31%
405Total Passes194
312Accurate Passes98
77%Pass Accuracy51%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
14Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Salford City vs Cheltenham

Salford City and Cheltenham drew 1-1 in League Two on August 29, 2025.

Goals: G. Miller (56'), K. Harris (90').

Salford City controlled possession (69%) and registered 26 shots to 5.

The match was played at Peninsula Stadium in Salford.