Salford City 0–2 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cheltenham

9/14/2019

League Two · Round 8The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City56%

×Draw24%

Cheltenham20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.89

Salford City

1.68

Cheltenham

0.89

Salford City creates 89% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.95

creates per match

1.01

0.77

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Salford City

1.95

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Salford City

0.77

Cheltenham

1.41

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less

Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

80%

Salford City or Cheltenham

76%

Draw or Cheltenham

44%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

31%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

81%

Salford City 2+ goals

50%

Salford City 3+ goals

24%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

59%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

22%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

74%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.68

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Salford City scores more

56%

level

24%

Cheltenham scores more

20%

Salford City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff