Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Salernitana vs Hellas Verona — Serie A 2018

Salernitana
Salernitana
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
9/22/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 5Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Salernitana38%
×Draw25%
Hellas Verona36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salernitana
1.41
Hellas Verona
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 102 away

creates per match

Salernitana
1.24
Hellas Verona
1.02

allows per match

Salernitana
1.71
Hellas Verona
1.57

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par
Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw
64%
Salernitana or Hellas Verona
75%
Draw or Hellas Verona
62%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+
18%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals
76%
Salernitana 2+ goals
41%
Salernitana 3+ goals
17%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
74%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
39%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)
52%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.57 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.24 + Hellas Verona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Hellas Verona attack 1.02 + Salernitana defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Salernitana scores more
38%
level
25%
Hellas Verona scores more
36%

Salernitana at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Salernitana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Salernitana 2–2 Hellas Verona

Salernitana and Hellas Verona drew 2-2 in Serie A on September 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Arechi in Salerno.