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Hellas Verona vs Salernitana — Serie B 2018

Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Salernitana
Salernitana
2/22/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 25Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi (Verona)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hellas Verona49%
×Draw25%
Salernitana25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona
1.55
Salernitana
1.03

Hellas Verona creates 50% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 77 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona
1.67
Salernitana
0.84

allows per match

Hellas Verona
1.22
Salernitana
1.43

finishing

Hellas Verona+0.00on par
Salernitana+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Salernitana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw
75%
Hellas Verona or Salernitana
75%
Draw or Salernitana
51%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+
25%
Salernitana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals
79%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
46%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
20%
Salernitana 1+ goals
64%
Salernitana 2+ goals
28%
Salernitana 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
66%
Salernitana (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Salernitana away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.43 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 1.67 + Salernitana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Salernitana attack 0.84 + Hellas Verona defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hellas Verona scores more
49%
level
25%
Salernitana scores more
25%

Hellas Verona at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hellas Verona vs Salernitana

Hellas Verona beat Salernitana 1-0 in Serie B on February 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi (Verona).