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Hellas Verona vs Salernitana — Serie A 2018

Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Salernitana
Salernitana
2/13/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 22Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hellas Verona47%
×Draw25%
Salernitana28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona
1.60
Salernitana
1.18

Hellas Verona creates 36% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 38 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona
1.23
Salernitana
0.89

allows per match

Hellas Verona
1.46
Salernitana
1.97

finishing

Hellas Verona+0.00on par
Salernitana+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Salernitana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw
72%
Hellas Verona or Salernitana
75%
Draw or Salernitana
53%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+
24%
Salernitana wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals
80%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
47%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
22%
Salernitana 1+ goals
69%
Salernitana 2+ goals
33%
Salernitana 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
63%
Salernitana (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 98 matches

Salernitana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 1.23 + Salernitana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.60

Salernitana attack 0.89 + Hellas Verona defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hellas Verona scores more
47%
level
25%
Salernitana scores more
28%

Hellas Verona at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hellas Verona vs Salernitana

Hellas Verona beat Salernitana 1-0 in Serie A on February 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.