Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Salernitana vs Hellas Verona — Serie B 2018

Salernitana
Salernitana
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
L. Jallow 68'
9/29/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 6Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Salernitana43%
×Draw27%
Hellas Verona31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salernitana
1.39
Hellas Verona
1.14

Salernitana creates 22% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 21 away

creates per match

Salernitana
1.54
Hellas Verona
1.19

allows per match

Salernitana
1.09
Hellas Verona
1.24

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par
Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw
69%
Salernitana or Hellas Verona
73%
Draw or Hellas Verona
57%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+
20%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals
75%
Salernitana 2+ goals
40%
Salernitana 3+ goals
16%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
68%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
32%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)
58%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.09 · 74 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.54 + Hellas Verona defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Hellas Verona attack 1.19 + Salernitana defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Salernitana scores more
43%
level
27%
Hellas Verona scores more
31%

Salernitana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Salernitana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
Santiago Colombatto
49'
Luca Castiglia
51'
M. Migliorini← R. Schiavi
57'
A. Vuletich← M. Đurić
59'
M. Zaccagni← S. Colombatto
59'
K. Laribi← K. Cissé
66'
Marco Migliorini
68'
L. Jallow↳ T. Casasola
69'
Lamin Jallow
78'
R. Bocalon← L. Jallow
84'
Liam Henderson
85'
G. Pazzini← L. Henderson
90'
Francesco Di Tacchio
90'
Karim Laribi

Possession

35%Salernitana

Shots

7Salernitana

Statistics

SalernitanaHellas
Overview
35%Possession65%
7Total Shots9
5Corners5
21Fouls16
Shots
7Total Shots9
1On Target5
6Off Target4
Passing
35%Possession65%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
21Fouls16
4Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
3Offsides2

Serie B: Salernitana 1–0 Hellas Verona

Salernitana beat Hellas Verona 1-0 in Serie B on September 29, 2018.

Goals: L. Jallow (68').

Hellas Verona controlled possession (65%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Arechi in Salerno.