Sakaryaspor 0–1 Göztepe: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Sakaryaspor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Göztepe

H. Akbunar 81'

3/25/2012

1. Lig · Round 27Sakarya Atatürk Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sakaryaspor37%

×Draw27%

Göztepe35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SakaryasporExpected goals in this matchGöztepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.19

Sakaryaspor

1.24

Göztepe

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 44 away

1.54

creates per match

1.30

1.08

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Sakaryaspor

1.54

Göztepe

1.30

allows per match

Sakaryaspor

1.08

Göztepe

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sakaryaspor+0.00on par

Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakaryaspor ↓

Göztepe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sakaryaspor or draw

65%

Sakaryaspor or Göztepe

73%

Draw or Göztepe

63%

Winning margin

Sakaryaspor wins by 2+

16%

Göztepe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sakaryaspor 1+ goals

71%

Sakaryaspor 2+ goals

35%

Sakaryaspor 3+ goals

13%

Göztepe 1+ goals

70%

Göztepe 2+ goals

33%

Göztepe 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)

52%

Göztepe (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakaryaspor at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakaryaspor attack 1.54 + Göztepe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.24

Göztepe attack 1.30 + Sakaryaspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sakaryaspor scores more

37%

level

27%

Göztepe scores more

35%

Sakaryaspor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sakaryaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

H. Akbunar← E. Öztürk

56'

71'

71'

81'

86'

Ö. Kedikli← K. Eryılmaz

87'

G. Gürsoy← İ. Şahin

Sakaryaspor

Göztepe

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Y. Vural

71'▲B. Demir←▼B. Genç

71'▲I. Urdem←▼M. Başoğlu

86'▲Ö. Kedikli←▼K. Eryılmaz

Sakaryaspor substitutes

DemirUrdemKedikliDuranÇimenAvginOk

Manager: C. Arslan

55'▲H. Akbunar←▼E. Öztürk

56'▲K. Ozturk←▼T. Weeks

87'▲G. Gürsoy←▼İ. Şahin

Göztepe substitutes

AkbunarOzturkGürsoyDagdelenBalAteşDemirhan