Göztepe 0–1 Sakaryaspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Göztepe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sakaryaspor

D. Ndlovu 49'

8/13/2023

1. Lig · Round 1Spor Toto Akhisar Belediye Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Göztepe58%

×Draw24%

Sakaryaspor19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GöztepeExpected goals in this matchSakaryaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.88

Göztepe

1.74

Sakaryaspor

0.88

Göztepe creates 98% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 71 away

1.69

creates per match

1.15

0.60

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Göztepe

1.69

Sakaryaspor

1.15

allows per match

Göztepe

0.60

Sakaryaspor

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par

Sakaryaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Sakaryaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw

81%

Göztepe or Sakaryaspor

76%

Draw or Sakaryaspor

42%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+

32%

Sakaryaspor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals

82%

Göztepe 2+ goals

52%

Göztepe 3+ goals

25%

Sakaryaspor 1+ goals

59%

Sakaryaspor 2+ goals

22%

Sakaryaspor 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)

75%

Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.60 · 35 matches

Sakaryaspor away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 1.69 + Sakaryaspor defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.74

Sakaryaspor attack 1.15 + Göztepe defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Göztepe scores more

58%

level

24%

Sakaryaspor scores more

19%

Göztepe at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

R. Rotman

Sakaryaspor · D

7.9

Match Events

49'

D. Ndlovu↳ A. Ülgen

69'

A. Traoré← R. Palmer

70'

C. Yüksel← T. Altıkardeş

70'

M. Ngalina← D. Tijanič

70'

R. Muhammed← B. Süleyman

77'

Yonathan Del Valle

77'

K. Kasongo← D. Ndlovu

84'

M. Kvasina← K. Mamah

85'

Ç. Menderes← H. Yavuz

85'

M. Akarslan← Y. Del Valle

89'

U. Yıldız← O. Bayrak

90+11'

Rashad Muhammed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GöztepeSakaryaspor

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots10

9Corners2

10Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots10

6On Target3

5Off Target7

5Blocked0

10Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

442Total Passes333

365Accurate Passes231

83%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1