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Sakaryaspor vs Göztepe — 1. Lig 2018

Sakaryaspor
Sakaryaspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Göztepe
Göztepe
8/14/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 1Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sakaryaspor36%
×Draw28%
Göztepe36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakaryaspor
1.21
Göztepe
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 36 away

creates per match

Sakaryaspor
1.56
Göztepe
1.33

allows per match

Sakaryaspor
1.08
Göztepe
0.86

finishing

Sakaryaspor+0.00on par
Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakaryaspor ↓

Göztepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sakaryaspor or draw
64%
Sakaryaspor or Göztepe
72%
Draw or Göztepe
64%

Winning margin

Sakaryaspor wins by 2+
15%
Göztepe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sakaryaspor 1+ goals
70%
Sakaryaspor 2+ goals
34%
Sakaryaspor 3+ goals
12%
Göztepe 1+ goals
70%
Göztepe 2+ goals
34%
Göztepe 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)
50%
Göztepe (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakaryaspor at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.08 · 73 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakaryaspor attack 1.56 + Göztepe defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.21

Göztepe attack 1.33 + Sakaryaspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sakaryaspor scores more
36%
level
28%
Göztepe scores more
36%

Sakaryaspor at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sakaryaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sakaryaspor vs Göztepe

Göztepe beat Sakaryaspor 1-0 in 1. Lig on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadyumu in Adapazarı.