Göztepe 2–1 Sakaryaspor: Result & Stats

Göztepe

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sakaryaspor

A. Kucık 87'

H. Gezmiş 34'

S. Çatalbas 10'

10/31/2012

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd Roundİzmir Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Göztepe82%

×Draw12%

Sakaryaspor5%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GöztepeExpected goals in this matchSakaryaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

0.52

Göztepe

2.67

Sakaryaspor

0.52

Göztepe creates 413% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

2.50

creates per match

0.67

0.36

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Göztepe

2.50

Sakaryaspor

0.67

allows per match

Göztepe

0.36

Sakaryaspor

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par

Sakaryaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Sakaryaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw

95%

Göztepe or Sakaryaspor

88%

Draw or Sakaryaspor

18%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+

61%

Sakaryaspor wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals

93%

Göztepe 2+ goals

74%

Göztepe 3+ goals

49%

Sakaryaspor 1+ goals

41%

Sakaryaspor 2+ goals

10%

Sakaryaspor 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)

94%

Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

Sakaryaspor away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 2.50 + Sakaryaspor defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.67

Sakaryaspor attack 0.67 + Göztepe defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Göztepe scores more

82%

level

12%

Sakaryaspor scores more

5%

Göztepe at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

34'

40'

69'

70'

77'

87'

90'

Göztepe

Sakaryaspor

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kucık

Manager: K. Kılıç

70'▲B. Buval←▼İ. Şahin

77'▲H. Akbunar←▼D. Güçlü

90'▲F. Doğan←▼A. Kucık

Göztepe substitutes

BuvalAkbunarDoğanBaianoEkiciAvcıCan

Manager: O. Çetin

40'▲A. Ok←▼S. Çatalbas

69'▲H. Doğru←▼B. Demir

Sakaryaspor substitutes

OkDoğruÇimenGörürŞehitBilge

Match Recap: Göztepe vs Sakaryaspor

Göztepe beat Sakaryaspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 31, 2012.

Goals: S. Çatalbas (10'), H. Gezmiş (34'), A. Kucık (87').

The match was played at İzmir Atatürk Stadyumu in İzmir.

Göztepe vs Sakaryaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Göztepe vs Sakaryaspor