Saint-Étienne W 1–6 Lyon W: Result & Stats

Saint-Étienne W

FT

1 – 6

HT: 1 – 4

Lyon W

A. Pierre-Louis 21'

V. Bècho 90+3', 28'

R. Otu 70' (OG)

K. Diani 45+4' (pen)

W. Renard 17' (pen)

G. Mbock Bathy 14'

4/14/2024

Feminine Division 1 · Round 20Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Saint-Étienne W7%

×Draw13%

Lyon W80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint-Étienne WExpected goals in this matchLyon W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.71

2.79

Saint-Étienne W

0.71

Lyon W

2.79

Lyon W creates 293% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 84 away

0.93

creates per match

3.51

2.07

allows per match

0.49

creates per match

Saint-Étienne W

0.93

Lyon W

3.51

allows per match

Saint-Étienne W

2.07

Lyon W

0.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint-Étienne W+0.00on par

Lyon W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint-Étienne W ↓

Lyon W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–19%

0–212%

0–311%

0–48%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Saint-Étienne W or draw

20%

Saint-Étienne W or Lyon W

87%

Draw or Lyon W

93%

Winning margin

Saint-Étienne W wins by 2+

2%

Lyon W wins by 2+

59%

Team goals

Saint-Étienne W 1+ goals

51%

Saint-Étienne W 2+ goals

16%

Saint-Étienne W 3+ goals

4%

Lyon W 1+ goals

94%

Lyon W 2+ goals

76%

Lyon W 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Saint-Étienne W (draw refunded)

8%

Lyon W (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint-Étienne W at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 44 matches

Lyon W away — creates 3.51, concedes 0.49 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint-Étienne W attack 0.93 + Lyon W defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.71

Lyon W attack 3.51 + Saint-Étienne W defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Saint-Étienne W scores more

7%

level

13%

Lyon W scores more

80%

Lyon W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Marozsán

Lyon W · M

8.7

Match Events

14'

G. Mbock Bathy

17'

W. RenardPenalty

21'

A. Pierre-Louis

28'

V. Bècho↳ M. Dumornay

38'

Regina Ibiang Otu

45+4'

K. DianiPenalty

58'

D. van de Donk← D. Egurrola

59'

V. Gilles← W. Renard

59'

P. Morroni← S. Bacha

62'

A. Mbadi← N. Blanchard

70'

R. OtuOwn goal

71'

Maeline Mendy← G. Mbock Bathy

71'

76'

77'

88'

88'

B. Benera← S. Champagnac

90+3'

V. Bècho↳ D. Marozsán

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Saint-ÉtienneLyon

Overview

40%Possession60%

4Total Shots30

1Corners10

10Fouls13

Shots

4Total Shots30

3On Target12

1Off Target13

0Blocked5

3Inside Box26

1Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

328Total Passes476

229Accurate Passes427

70%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides4

Feminine Division 1: Saint-Étienne W 1–6 Lyon W

Lyon W beat Saint-Étienne W 6-1 in Feminine Division 1 on April 14, 2024.

Goals: G. Mbock Bathy (14'), W. Renard (17' pen), A. Pierre-Louis (21'), V. Bècho (28', 90+3'), K. Diani (45+4' pen), R. Otu (70' o.g.).

Lyon W controlled possession (60%) and registered 30 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Ètienne.

Saint-Étienne W vs Lyon W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Feminine Division 1: Saint-Étienne W 1–6 Lyon W