Lyon W 4–0 Saint-Étienne W: Result & Stats

Lyon W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Saint-Étienne W

K. Diani 90' (pen)

M. Katoto 71'

S. Svava 47'

I. Benyahia 45'

2/8/2026

Feminine Division 1 · Round 15Parc Olympique Lyonnais

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Lyon W88%

×Draw8%

Saint-Étienne W3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lyon WExpected goals in this matchSaint-Étienne W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.30

0.52

Lyon W

3.30

Saint-Étienne W

0.52

Lyon W creates 535% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 44 away

4.00

creates per match

0.77

0.26

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Lyon W

4.00

Saint-Étienne W

0.77

allows per match

Lyon W

0.26

Saint-Étienne W

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lyon W+0.00on par

Saint-Étienne W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon W ↓

Saint-Étienne W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Lyon W or draw

97%

Lyon W or Saint-Étienne W

92%

Draw or Saint-Étienne W

12%

Winning margin

Lyon W wins by 2+

72%

Saint-Étienne W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Lyon W 1+ goals

96%

Lyon W 2+ goals

83%

Lyon W 3+ goals

62%

Saint-Étienne W 1+ goals

41%

Saint-Étienne W 2+ goals

10%

Saint-Étienne W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Lyon W (draw refunded)

97%

Saint-Étienne W (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.26 · 92 matches

Saint-Étienne W away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon W attack 4.00 + Saint-Étienne W defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 3.30

Saint-Étienne W attack 0.77 + Lyon W defence 0.26 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Lyon W scores more

88%

level

8%

Saint-Étienne W scores more

3%

Lyon W at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

K. Diani

Lyon W · M

9.9

Match Events

45+2'

Laura Munk Hermann

45'

I. Benyahia

46'

T. Isgrig← L. M. Hermann

47'

S. Svava↳ K. Diani

62'

L. Heaps← K. Shrader

62'

D. Egurrola← L. Yohannes

62'

S. Bacha← S. Svava

62'

N. Istocki← K. Williams

62'

M. Belkhiter← M. Romanelli

67'

D. M. Dumornay← I. Benyahia

67'

V. Becho← T. Chawinga

71'

A. Pierre-Louis← H. Meadows

71'

M. Katoto

78'

R. Corboz← S. Cambot

90+4'

Morgane Belkhiter

90'

K. DianiPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LyonSaint-Étienne

Overview

80%Possession20%

19Total Shots1

6Corners1

7Fouls7

Shots

19Total Shots1

8On Target0

7Off Target1

4Blocked0

18Inside Box1

1Outside Box0

Passing

80%Possession20%

766Total Passes197

681Accurate Passes105

89%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls7

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0