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Lyon W vs Saint-Étienne W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Lyon W
Lyon W
FT
11 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Saint-Étienne W
Saint-Étienne W
K. Diani 90+7', 90+2'
M. Dumornay 90'
D. van de Donk 88'
T. Chawinga 79'
L. Horan 67', 35', 14', 12'
A. Majri 52'
E. Le Sommer 48'
11/16/2024Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 8Terrain d'honneur Gérard Houllier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Lyon W88%
×Draw8%
Saint-Étienne W3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyon W
3.30
Saint-Étienne W
0.52

Lyon W creates 535% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 44 away

creates per match

Lyon W
4.00
Saint-Étienne W
0.77

allows per match

Lyon W
0.26
Saint-Étienne W
2.61

finishing

Lyon W+0.00on par
Saint-Étienne W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon W ↓

Saint-Étienne W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Lyon W or draw
97%
Lyon W or Saint-Étienne W
92%
Draw or Saint-Étienne W
12%

Winning margin

Lyon W wins by 2+
72%
Saint-Étienne W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Lyon W 1+ goals
96%
Lyon W 2+ goals
83%
Lyon W 3+ goals
62%
Saint-Étienne W 1+ goals
41%
Saint-Étienne W 2+ goals
10%
Saint-Étienne W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Lyon W (draw refunded)
97%
Saint-Étienne W (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.26 · 92 matches

Saint-Étienne W away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon W attack 4.00 + Saint-Étienne W defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 3.30

Saint-Étienne W attack 0.77 + Lyon W defence 0.26 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Lyon W scores more
88%
level
8%
Saint-Étienne W scores more
3%

Lyon W at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
L. HoranLyon WLyon W · M
10.0

Match Events

12'
L. Horan
14'
L. Horan↳ E. Carpenter
35'
L. Horan
48'
E. Le Sommer
52'
A. Majri↳ D. van de Donk
56'
T. Chawinga← E. Le Sommer
56'
D. Marozsán← S. Däbritz
62'
A. Lamontagne← S. Champagnac
62'
A. Connesson← A. Pierre-Louis
67'
L. Horan
68'
K. Diani← L. Horan
68'
S. Svava← E. Carpenter
78'
M. Dumornay← W. Renard
79'
T. Chawinga↳ V. Bècho
80'
M. Maniouloux← C. Caputo
88'
T. Job← C. Tapia
88'
D. Tene← S. Cambot
88'
D. van de Donk↳ S. Svava
90'
M. Dumornay
90+2'
K. Diani
90+7'
K. Diani↳ S. Svava

Possession

70%Lyon

Shots

33Lyon

Pass accuracy

58%Lyon

Statistics

LyonSaint-Étienne
Overview
70%Possession30%
33Total Shots1
8Corners0
3Fouls7
Shots
33Total Shots1
19On Target0
9Off Target1
5Blocked0
31Inside Box1
2Outside Box0
Passing
70%Possession30%
683Total Passes293
597Accurate Passes185
87%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
3Fouls7
4Offsides3

Match Recap: Lyon W vs Saint-Étienne W

Lyon W beat Saint-Étienne W 11-0 in Feminine Division 1 on November 16, 2024.

Goals: L. Horan (12', 14', 35', 67'), E. Le Sommer (48'), A. Majri (52'), T. Chawinga (79'), D. van de Donk (88'), M. Dumornay (90'), K. Diani (90+2', 90+7').

Lyon W controlled possession (70%) and registered 33 shots to 1.

The match was played at Terrain d'honneur Gérard Houllier in Décines-Charpieu.