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Saint Etienne vs Paris FC — Ligue 2 2018

Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Paris FC
Paris FC
10/15/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Saint Etienne46%
×Draw27%
Paris FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Etienne
1.43
Paris FC
1.05

Saint Etienne creates 36% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 128 away

creates per match

Saint Etienne
1.77
Paris FC
1.05

allows per match

Saint Etienne
1.05
Paris FC
1.08

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par
Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw
72%
Saint Etienne or Paris FC
73%
Draw or Paris FC
54%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+
22%
Paris FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals
76%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
42%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
17%
Paris FC 1+ goals
65%
Paris FC 2+ goals
28%
Paris FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
62%
Paris FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.08 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.77 + Paris FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.43

Paris FC attack 1.05 + Saint Etienne defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Saint Etienne scores more
46%
level
27%
Paris FC scores more
28%

Saint Etienne at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Etienne vs Paris FC

Paris FC beat Saint Etienne 2-0 in Ligue 2 on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Ètienne.