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Paris FC vs Saint Etienne — Ligue 2 2018

Paris FC
Paris FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
3/2/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 27Stade Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Paris FC41%
×Draw27%
Saint Etienne32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris FC
1.32
Saint Etienne
1.14

Paris FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 55 away

creates per match

Paris FC
1.42
Saint Etienne
1.33

allows per match

Paris FC
0.94
Saint Etienne
1.22

finishing

Paris FC+0.00on par
Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC ↓

Saint Etienne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Paris FC or draw
68%
Paris FC or Saint Etienne
73%
Draw or Saint Etienne
59%

Winning margin

Paris FC wins by 2+
19%
Saint Etienne wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Paris FC 1+ goals
73%
Paris FC 2+ goals
38%
Paris FC 3+ goals
15%
Saint Etienne 1+ goals
68%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
32%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Paris FC (draw refunded)
56%
Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.94 · 127 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC attack 1.42 + Saint Etienne defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Saint Etienne attack 1.33 + Paris FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Paris FC scores more
41%
level
27%
Saint Etienne scores more
32%

Paris FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Paris FC 0–0 Saint Etienne

Paris FC and Saint Etienne drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Charléty in Paris.