Paris FC 2–3 Saint Etienne: Result & Stats

Paris FC

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Saint Etienne

1/18/2020

Coupe de France · 16th FinalsStade Sébastien-Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Paris FC59%

×Draw18%

Saint Etienne23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris FCExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.68

1.64

Paris FC

2.68

Saint Etienne

1.64

Paris FC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

4.60

creates per match

2.08

1.20

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Paris FC

4.60

Saint Etienne

2.08

allows per match

Paris FC

1.20

Saint Etienne

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris FC+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC ↓

Saint Etienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Paris FC or draw

77%

Paris FC or Saint Etienne

82%

Draw or Saint Etienne

41%

Winning margin

Paris FC wins by 2+

39%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Paris FC 1+ goals

93%

Paris FC 2+ goals

74%

Paris FC 3+ goals

49%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

81%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

49%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Paris FC (draw refunded)

72%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC at home — creates 4.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC attack 4.60 + Saint Etienne defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 2.68

Saint Etienne attack 2.08 + Paris FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Paris FC scores more

59%

level

18%

Saint Etienne scores more

23%

Paris FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff