Saint Etienne 0–1 Nimes: Result & Stats

Saint Etienne

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nimes

12/9/2023

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Saint Etienne48%

×Draw19%

Nimes33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint EtienneExpected goals in this matchNimes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

2.05

Saint Etienne

2.50

Nimes

2.05

Saint Etienne creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

3.20

creates per match

1.50

2.60

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Saint Etienne

3.20

Nimes

1.50

allows per match

Saint Etienne

2.60

Nimes

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Nimes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Nimes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw

67%

Saint Etienne or Nimes

81%

Draw or Nimes

52%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

29%

Nimes wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

92%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

71%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

45%

Nimes 1+ goals

87%

Nimes 2+ goals

61%

Nimes 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

60%

Nimes (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 3.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Nimes away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 3.20 + Nimes defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.50

Nimes attack 1.50 + Saint Etienne defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Saint Etienne scores more

48%

level

19%

Nimes scores more

33%

Saint Etienne at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff