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Saint Etienne vs Nimes — Ligue 1 2018

Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Nimes
Nimes
12/20/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 16Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Saint Etienne45%
×Draw25%
Nimes30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Etienne
1.58
Nimes
1.23

Saint Etienne creates 28% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 52 away

creates per match

Saint Etienne
1.27
Nimes
1.10

allows per match

Saint Etienne
1.36
Nimes
1.90

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par
Nimes+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Nimes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw
70%
Saint Etienne or Nimes
75%
Draw or Nimes
55%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+
23%
Nimes wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals
79%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
47%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
21%
Nimes 1+ goals
71%
Nimes 2+ goals
35%
Nimes 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
60%
Nimes (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 73 matches

Nimes away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.90 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.27 + Nimes defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.58

Nimes attack 1.10 + Saint Etienne defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Saint Etienne scores more
45%
level
25%
Nimes scores more
30%

Saint Etienne at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Etienne vs Nimes

Saint Etienne and Nimes drew 2-2 in Ligue 1 on December 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Ètienne.