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Nimes vs Saint Etienne — Ligue 2 2018

Nimes
Nimes
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
2/20/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade des Antonins

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Nimes34%
×Draw26%
Saint Etienne40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nimes
1.23
Saint Etienne
1.35

Saint Etienne creates 10% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 55 away

creates per match

Nimes
1.25
Saint Etienne
1.33

allows per match

Nimes
1.38
Saint Etienne
1.22

finishing

Nimes+0.00on par
Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nimes ↓

Saint Etienne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nimes or draw
60%
Nimes or Saint Etienne
74%
Draw or Saint Etienne
66%

Winning margin

Nimes wins by 2+
14%
Saint Etienne wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Nimes 1+ goals
71%
Nimes 2+ goals
35%
Nimes 3+ goals
13%
Saint Etienne 1+ goals
74%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
39%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nimes (draw refunded)
46%
Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nimes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nimes attack 1.25 + Saint Etienne defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Saint Etienne attack 1.33 + Nimes defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nimes scores more
34%
level
26%
Saint Etienne scores more
40%

Saint Etienne at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nimes vs Saint Etienne

Saint Etienne beat Nimes 2-1 in Ligue 2 on February 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stade des Antonins in Nîmes.