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Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes — Ligue 2 2018

Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
2/12/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Saint Etienne43%
×Draw27%
Estac Troyes30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Etienne
1.38
Estac Troyes
1.09

Saint Etienne creates 27% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 105 away

creates per match

Saint Etienne
1.77
Estac Troyes
1.14

allows per match

Saint Etienne
1.05
Estac Troyes
0.98

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par
Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Estac Troyes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw
70%
Saint Etienne or Estac Troyes
73%
Draw or Estac Troyes
57%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+
21%
Estac Troyes wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals
75%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
40%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
16%
Estac Troyes 1+ goals
66%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
30%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
59%
Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.77 + Estac Troyes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.38

Estac Troyes attack 1.14 + Saint Etienne defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Saint Etienne scores more
43%
level
27%
Estac Troyes scores more
30%

Saint Etienne at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes

Saint Etienne beat Estac Troyes 5-0 in Ligue 2 on February 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Ètienne.