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Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne — Ligue 2 2018

Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
9/30/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Estac Troyes42%
×Draw26%
Saint Etienne31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estac Troyes
1.40
Saint Etienne
1.16

Estac Troyes creates 21% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 55 away

creates per match

Estac Troyes
1.57
Saint Etienne
1.33

allows per match

Estac Troyes
0.98
Saint Etienne
1.22

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par
Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Saint Etienne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw
69%
Estac Troyes or Saint Etienne
74%
Draw or Saint Etienne
58%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+
20%
Saint Etienne wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals
75%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
41%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
17%
Saint Etienne 1+ goals
69%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
32%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
58%
Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.98 · 106 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.57 + Saint Etienne defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.40

Saint Etienne attack 1.33 + Estac Troyes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Estac Troyes scores more
42%
level
26%
Saint Etienne scores more
31%

Estac Troyes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Estac Troyes 0–1 Saint Etienne

Saint Etienne beat Estac Troyes 1-0 in Ligue 2 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de l'Aube in Troyes.