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Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes — Ligue 1 2018

Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
3/18/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 29Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Saint Etienne49%
×Draw23%
Estac Troyes27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Etienne
1.76
Estac Troyes
1.26

Saint Etienne creates 40% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 38 away

creates per match

Saint Etienne
1.27
Estac Troyes
1.16

allows per match

Saint Etienne
1.36
Estac Troyes
2.24

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par
Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Estac Troyes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw
73%
Saint Etienne or Estac Troyes
77%
Draw or Estac Troyes
51%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+
27%
Estac Troyes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals
83%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
52%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
26%
Estac Troyes 1+ goals
72%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
36%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
64%
Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 73 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.24 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.27 + Estac Troyes defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.76

Estac Troyes attack 1.16 + Saint Etienne defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Saint Etienne scores more
49%
level
23%
Estac Troyes scores more
27%

Saint Etienne at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Saint Etienne 1–1 Estac Troyes

Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on March 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Ètienne.