Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sai Gon vs Binh Dinh — V.League 1 2019

Sai Gon
Sai Gon
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Binh Dinh
Binh Dinh
7/9/2022V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 6Sân vận động Thống Nhất

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Sai Gon41%
×Draw28%
Binh Dinh31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sai Gon
1.27
Binh Dinh
1.05

Sai Gon creates 21% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 54 away

creates per match

Sai Gon
1.30
Binh Dinh
1.17

allows per match

Sai Gon
0.93
Binh Dinh
1.24

finishing

Sai Gon+0.00on par
Binh Dinh+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sai Gon ↓

Binh Dinh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sai Gon or draw
69%
Sai Gon or Binh Dinh
72%
Draw or Binh Dinh
59%

Winning margin

Sai Gon wins by 2+
19%
Binh Dinh wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sai Gon 1+ goals
72%
Sai Gon 2+ goals
36%
Sai Gon 3+ goals
14%
Binh Dinh 1+ goals
65%
Binh Dinh 2+ goals
28%
Binh Dinh 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sai Gon (draw refunded)
57%
Binh Dinh (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sai Gon at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 40 matches

Binh Dinh away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.24 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sai Gon attack 1.30 + Binh Dinh defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Binh Dinh attack 1.17 + Sai Gon defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sai Gon scores more
41%
level
28%
Binh Dinh scores more
31%

Sai Gon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sai Gon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Sai Gon 1–1 Binh Dinh

Sai Gon and Binh Dinh drew 1-1 in V.League 1 on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Thống Nhất in Ho Chi Minh City.