Sai Gon 6–1 Binh Dinh: Result & Stats | Cup

Sai Gon

FT

6 – 1

Binh Dinh

3/29/2019

Cup · 1st RoundSân vận động Thống Nhất (Thong Nhat Stadium) (Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh (Ho Chi Minh City))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sai Gon80%

×Draw13%

Binh Dinh7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sai GonExpected goals in this matchBinh Dinh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

0.79

Sai Gon

2.92

Binh Dinh

0.79

Sai Gon creates 270% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

3.33

creates per match

0.25

1.33

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Sai Gon

3.33

Binh Dinh

0.25

allows per match

Sai Gon

1.33

Binh Dinh

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sai Gon+0.00on par

Binh Dinh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sai Gon ↓

Binh Dinh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Sai Gon or draw

93%

Sai Gon or Binh Dinh

87%

Draw or Binh Dinh

20%

Winning margin

Sai Gon wins by 2+

60%

Binh Dinh wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Sai Gon 1+ goals

94%

Sai Gon 2+ goals

78%

Sai Gon 3+ goals

55%

Binh Dinh 1+ goals

55%

Binh Dinh 2+ goals

19%

Binh Dinh 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sai Gon (draw refunded)

92%

Binh Dinh (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sai Gon at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Binh Dinh away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sai Gon attack 3.33 + Binh Dinh defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.92

Binh Dinh attack 0.25 + Sai Gon defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Sai Gon scores more

80%

level

13%

Binh Dinh scores more

7%

Sai Gon at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Sai Gon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff