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Binh Dinh vs Sai Gon — V.League 1 2019

Binh Dinh
Binh Dinh
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sai Gon
Sai Gon
10/22/2022V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 21Sân vận động Qui Nhơn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Binh Dinh49%
×Draw25%
Sai Gon27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Dinh
1.64
Sai Gon
1.15

Binh Dinh creates 43% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 42 away

creates per match

Binh Dinh
1.41
Sai Gon
1.12

allows per match

Binh Dinh
1.17
Sai Gon
1.86

finishing

Binh Dinh+0.00on par
Sai Gon+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Dinh ↓

Sai Gon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Binh Dinh or draw
73%
Binh Dinh or Sai Gon
75%
Draw or Sai Gon
51%

Winning margin

Binh Dinh wins by 2+
26%
Sai Gon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Binh Dinh 1+ goals
81%
Binh Dinh 2+ goals
49%
Binh Dinh 3+ goals
23%
Sai Gon 1+ goals
68%
Sai Gon 2+ goals
32%
Sai Gon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Binh Dinh (draw refunded)
65%
Sai Gon (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Dinh at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.17 · 54 matches

Sai Gon away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Dinh attack 1.41 + Sai Gon defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.64

Sai Gon attack 1.12 + Binh Dinh defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Binh Dinh scores more
49%
level
25%
Sai Gon scores more
27%

Binh Dinh at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Binh Dinh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Binh Dinh 3 – 0 Sai Gon

Binh Dinh beat Sai Gon 3-0 in V.League 1 on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Qui Nhơn in Qui Nhon.