Sagan Tosu 5–0 FC Tokyo: Result & Stats | J1 League

Sagan Tosu

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Tokyo

Y. Kakita 85', 78'

F. Honda 70'

Diego 48'

Y. Iwasaki 30'

6/26/2022

J1 League · Round 18Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Sagan Tosu39%

×Draw27%

FC Tokyo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sagan TosuExpected goals in this matchFC Tokyo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.17

Sagan Tosu

1.27

FC Tokyo

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 122 home / 148 away

1.26

creates per match

1.16

1.17

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Sagan Tosu

1.26

FC Tokyo

1.16

allows per match

Sagan Tosu

1.17

FC Tokyo

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sagan Tosu+0.00on par

FC Tokyo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagan Tosu ↓

FC Tokyo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sagan Tosu or draw

66%

Sagan Tosu or FC Tokyo

73%

Draw or FC Tokyo

61%

Winning margin

Sagan Tosu wins by 2+

17%

FC Tokyo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sagan Tosu 1+ goals

72%

Sagan Tosu 2+ goals

36%

Sagan Tosu 3+ goals

14%

FC Tokyo 1+ goals

69%

FC Tokyo 2+ goals

33%

FC Tokyo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)

53%

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagan Tosu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.17 · 122 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagan Tosu attack 1.26 + FC Tokyo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

FC Tokyo attack 1.16 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sagan Tosu scores more

39%

level

27%

FC Tokyo scores more

34%

Sagan Tosu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sagan Tosu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Y. Kakita

Sagan Tosu · F

8.2

Match Events

17'

F. Honda← Y. Ono

30'

Y. Iwasaki↳ K. Koizumi

33'

Leandro← S. Abe

42'

Diego

48'

Diego

60'

Y. Nagatomo← H. Nakamura

61'

K. Higashi← K. Matsuki

61'

K. Yamashita← K. Nagai

66'

T. Kikuchi← Y. Horigome

66'

Y. Kakita← T. Miyashiro

70'

F. Honda↳ A. Fukuta

78'

Y. Kakita↳ A. Fukuta

83'

N. Fujita← K. Koizumi

83'

R. Sagara← Y. Iwasaki

83'

M. Okazaki← M. Morishige

85'

Y. Kakita↳ N. Fujita

90+1'

Seok Ho Hwang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaganFC

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots13

3Corners6

18Fouls6

Shots

11Total Shots13

7On Target3

3Off Target8

1Blocked2

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

458Total Passes490

382Accurate Passes403

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides3