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FC Tokyo vs Sagan Tosu — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
T. Ko 82'
V. Slivka 73'
10/5/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 33Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

FC Tokyo47%
×Draw25%
Sagan Tosu28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.63
Sagan Tosu
1.21

FC Tokyo creates 35% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 7 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.64
Sagan Tosu
1.19

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.23
Sagan Tosu
1.63

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.27scores less
Sagan Tosu+0.38scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Sagan Tosu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
72%
FC Tokyo or Sagan Tosu
75%
Draw or Sagan Tosu
53%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
24%
Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
80%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
48%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
22%
Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
70%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
34%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
62%
Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.23 · 41 matches

Sagan Tosu away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.63 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.64 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sagan Tosu attack 1.19 + FC Tokyo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
47%
level
25%
Sagan Tosu scores more
28%

FC Tokyo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
T. KoFC TokyoFC Tokyo · M
8.2

Match Events

11'
Marcelo RyanGoal cancelled
54'
Wataru Harada
60'
Yasuki Kimoto
61'
R. Watanabe← Y. Horigome
61'
C. Togashi← S. Hino
65'
Tae-hyeon Kim
68'
T. Ogashiwa← Diego Oliveira
68'
R. Harakawa← K. Higashi
68'
K. Endo← K. Tawaratsumida
73'
V. Slivka
82'
T. Ko
84'
D. Suzuki← A. Fukuta
84'
K. Sakaiya← V. Slivka
87'
H. Nakamura← Y. Nagatomo
87'
L. Nozawa← S. Anzai
90+1'
Y. Imazu← H. Nakahara

Possession

63%FC

Shots

20FC

Pass accuracy

53%FC

Statistics

FCSagan
Overview
63%Possession37%
20Total Shots20
0.99Expected Goals (xG)1.86
11Corners7
6Fouls14
Shots
20Total Shots20
6On Target5
7Off Target5
7Blocked10
12Inside Box14
8Outside Box6
Passing
63%Possession37%
492Total Passes284
406Accurate Passes210
83%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
6Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

J1 League: FC Tokyo 1–1 Sagan Tosu

FC Tokyo and Sagan Tosu drew 1-1 in J1 League on October 5, 2024.

Goals: V. Slivka (73'), T. Ko (82').

FC Tokyo controlled possession (63%) and registered 20 shots to 20.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.