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FC Tokyo vs Sagan Tosu — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
K. Tawaratsumida 87'
R. Watanabe 59'
Adaílton 54'
C. Togashi 32' (pen)
Y. Naganuma 18'
9/23/2023J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 28Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

FC Tokyo49%
×Draw23%
Sagan Tosu28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.79
Sagan Tosu
1.29

FC Tokyo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.69
Sagan Tosu
1.32

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.26
Sagan Tosu
1.90

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.29scores less
Sagan Tosu+0.31scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Sagan Tosu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
72%
FC Tokyo or Sagan Tosu
77%
Draw or Sagan Tosu
51%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
27%
Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
83%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
53%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
26%
Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
72%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
37%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
64%
Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

Sagan Tosu away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.90 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.69 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sagan Tosu attack 1.32 + FC Tokyo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
49%
level
23%
Sagan Tosu scores more
28%

FC Tokyo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
AdaíltonFC TokyoFC Tokyo · M
8.5

Match Events

18'
Y. Naganuma↳ S. Kawahara
22'
Yoichi NaganumaGoal confirmed
30'
Henrique Trevisan
32'
C. TogashiPenalty
54'
Adaílton↳ K. Bangnagande
59'
R. Watanabe↳ Adaílton
66'
A. Kawata← C. Togashi
66'
A. Yokoyama← Y. Iwasaki
73'
Jája Silva← Diego Oliveira
78'
K. Tawaratsumida← Adaílton
78'
K. Shirai← K. Bangnagande
85'
T. Terayama← R. Harakawa
85'
Y. Kimoto← M. Morishige
85'
R. Kabayama← Y. Horigome
87'
K. Tawaratsumida
89'
N. Fujita← K. Tezuka

Possession

50%FC

Shots

18FC

Pass accuracy

49%FC

Statistics

FCSagan
Overview
50%Possession50%
18Total Shots10
3.84Expected Goals (xG)2.22
1Corners3
9Fouls15
Shots
18Total Shots10
7On Target3
8Off Target5
3Blocked2
13Inside Box9
5Outside Box1
Passing
50%Possession50%
458Total Passes471
362Accurate Passes381
79%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls15
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides2

J1 League: FC Tokyo 3–2 Sagan Tosu

FC Tokyo beat Sagan Tosu 3-2 in J1 League on September 23, 2023.

Goals: Y. Naganuma (18'), C. Togashi (32' pen), Adaílton (54'), R. Watanabe (59'), K. Tawaratsumida (87').

FC Tokyo controlled possession (50%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.