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Sagan Tosu vs Consadole Sapporo — J2 League 2018

Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Consadole Sapporo
Consadole Sapporo
5/25/2025J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 17Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sagan Tosu46%
×Draw25%
Consadole Sapporo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagan Tosu
1.54
Consadole Sapporo
1.18

Sagan Tosu creates 31% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Sagan Tosu
1.32
Consadole Sapporo
1.24

allows per match

Sagan Tosu
1.11
Consadole Sapporo
1.76

finishing

Sagan Tosu+0.00on par
Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagan Tosu ↓

Consadole Sapporo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sagan Tosu or draw
71%
Sagan Tosu or Consadole Sapporo
75%
Draw or Consadole Sapporo
54%

Winning margin

Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
23%
Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
79%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
45%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
20%
Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals
69%
Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals
33%
Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
61%
Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagan Tosu at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Consadole Sapporo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagan Tosu attack 1.32 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.24 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sagan Tosu scores more
46%
level
25%
Consadole Sapporo scores more
29%

Sagan Tosu at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sagan Tosu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Sagan Tosu 2–1 Consadole Sapporo

Sagan Tosu beat Consadole Sapporo 2-1 in J2 League on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium in Tosu.