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Consadole Sapporo vs Sagan Tosu — J2 League 2018

Consadole Sapporo
Consadole Sapporo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
8/2/2025J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 24Sapporo Atsubetsu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Consadole Sapporo36%
×Draw26%
Sagan Tosu38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Consadole Sapporo
1.30
Sagan Tosu
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

creates per match

Consadole Sapporo
1.45
Sagan Tosu
1.11

allows per match

Consadole Sapporo
1.55
Sagan Tosu
1.16

finishing

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par
Sagan Tosu+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Consadole Sapporo ↓

Sagan Tosu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Consadole Sapporo or draw
62%
Consadole Sapporo or Sagan Tosu
74%
Draw or Sagan Tosu
64%

Winning margin

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+
16%
Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals
73%
Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals
37%
Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals
14%
Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
74%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
38%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)
49%
Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Consadole Sapporo at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Sagan Tosu away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.45 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sagan Tosu attack 1.11 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Consadole Sapporo scores more
36%
level
26%
Sagan Tosu scores more
38%

Sagan Tosu at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sagan Tosu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Consadole Sapporo 1–0 Sagan Tosu

Consadole Sapporo beat Sagan Tosu 1-0 in J2 League on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Sapporo Atsubetsu Stadium in Sapporo.