Sagan Tosu 4–0 Consadole Sapporo: Result & Stats

Sagan Tosu

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Consadole Sapporo

3/2/2024

J1 League · Round 2Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Sagan Tosu43%

×Draw25%

Consadole Sapporo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sagan TosuExpected goals in this matchConsadole Sapporo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.23

Sagan Tosu

1.50

Consadole Sapporo

1.23

Sagan Tosu creates 22% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 123 away

1.26

creates per match

1.28

1.19

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Sagan Tosu

1.26

Consadole Sapporo

1.28

allows per match

Sagan Tosu

1.19

Consadole Sapporo

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sagan Tosu+0.00on par

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagan Tosu ↓

Consadole Sapporo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sagan Tosu or draw

69%

Sagan Tosu or Consadole Sapporo

75%

Draw or Consadole Sapporo

57%

Winning margin

Sagan Tosu wins by 2+

21%

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sagan Tosu 1+ goals

78%

Sagan Tosu 2+ goals

44%

Sagan Tosu 3+ goals

19%

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals

71%

Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals

35%

Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)

58%

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagan Tosu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Consadole Sapporo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.74 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagan Tosu attack 1.26 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.28 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sagan Tosu scores more

43%

level

25%

Consadole Sapporo scores more

31%

Sagan Tosu at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sagan Tosu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff