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Sabah FA vs Petaling Jaya City — Malaysia Cup 2019

Sabah FA
Sabah FA
FT
1 – 0
Petaling Jaya City
Petaling Jaya City
R. Mitrevski 17' (pen)
11/9/2021Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Group Stage - 6Stadium Likas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sabah FA47%
×Draw29%
Petaling Jaya City23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabah FA
1.25
Petaling Jaya City
0.79

Sabah FA creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sabah FA
1.00
Petaling Jaya City
0.50

allows per match

Sabah FA
1.07
Petaling Jaya City
1.50

finishing

Sabah FA+0.00on par
Petaling Jaya City+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabah FA ↓

Petaling Jaya City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sabah FA or draw
77%
Sabah FA or Petaling Jaya City
71%
Draw or Petaling Jaya City
53%

Winning margin

Sabah FA wins by 2+
21%
Petaling Jaya City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sabah FA 1+ goals
71%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
36%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
13%
Petaling Jaya City 1+ goals
55%
Petaling Jaya City 2+ goals
19%
Petaling Jaya City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sabah FA (draw refunded)
67%
Petaling Jaya City (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabah FA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Petaling Jaya City away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabah FA attack 1.00 + Petaling Jaya City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Petaling Jaya City attack 0.50 + Sabah FA defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sabah FA scores more
47%
level
29%
Petaling Jaya City scores more
23%

Sabah FA at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sabah FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
R. MitrevskiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Sabah FA 1–0 Petaling Jaya City

Sabah FA beat Petaling Jaya City 1-0 in Malaysia Cup on November 9, 2021.

Goals: R. Mitrevski (17' pen).

The match was played at Stadium Likas in Kota Kinablu.