Petaling Jaya City 1–0 Sabah FA: Result & Stats

Petaling Jaya City

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sabah FA

S. Chandran 89'

7/24/2021

League #278 · Round 14Stadium Petaling Jaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Petaling Jaya City32%

×Draw26%

Sabah FA42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petaling Jaya CityExpected goals in this matchSabah FA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.40

Petaling Jaya City

1.20

Sabah FA

1.40

Sabah FA creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.20

creates per match

1.80

1.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Petaling Jaya City

1.20

Sabah FA

1.80

allows per match

Petaling Jaya City

1.00

Sabah FA

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petaling Jaya City+0.00on par

Sabah FA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petaling Jaya City ↓

Sabah FA →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Petaling Jaya City or draw

58%

Petaling Jaya City or Sabah FA

74%

Draw or Sabah FA

68%

Winning margin

Petaling Jaya City wins by 2+

13%

Sabah FA wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Petaling Jaya City 1+ goals

70%

Petaling Jaya City 2+ goals

34%

Petaling Jaya City 3+ goals

12%

Sabah FA 1+ goals

75%

Sabah FA 2+ goals

41%

Sabah FA 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Petaling Jaya City (draw refunded)

44%

Sabah FA (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Petaling Jaya City at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Sabah FA away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Petaling Jaya City attack 1.20 + Sabah FA defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sabah FA attack 1.80 + Petaling Jaya City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Petaling Jaya City scores more

32%

level

26%

Sabah FA scores more

42%

Sabah FA at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sabah FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

R. Batuil

62'

S. Chandran← Syahmi Zamri

62'

K. Thivandaran← Faiz Mazlan

69'

Hamran Peter← Amri Yahyah

69'

Syukri Baharun← Azizan Nordin

80'

M. Kogileswaran Raj← Mahalli Jasuli

82'

Bobby Gonzales← J. Ivančić

82'

Sahrizan Saidin← Nazirul Naim Che Hashim

89'

S. Chandran

90+3'

K. Al Hafiz

90'

S. Subramaniam← A. Salomon Raj

90'

D. Kugan← P. Rajesh

Petaling

Sabah

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▼

▼

▼

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Manager: P. Maniam

62'▲S. Chandran←▼Syahmi Zamri

62'▲K. Thivandaran←▼Faiz Mazlan

80'▲M. Kogileswaran Raj←▼Mahalli Jasuli

90'▲S. Subramaniam←▼A. Salomon Raj

90'▲D. Kugan←▼P. Rajesh

Petaling Jaya City substitutes

9Chandran13Thivandaran7Raj3Subramaniam11Kugan2Hamid19Ruventhiran1Razak27Standly

Manager: D. Kurniawan

69'▲Hamran Peter←▼Amri Yahyah

69'▲Syukri Baharun←▼Azizan Nordin

82'▲Bobby Gonzales←▼J. Ivančić

82'▲Sahrizan Saidin←▼Nazirul Naim Che Hashim

Sabah FA substitutes

13Peter24Baharun9Gonzales40Saidin19Bacok21Musa30Rohim36Tokyo39Isa