Sabadell 0–1 Gimnastic: Result & Stats

Sabadell

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gimnastic

Juanmi Carrión 29' (OG)

4/8/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sabadell47%

×Draw30%

Gimnastic23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SabadellExpected goals in this matchGimnastic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.73

Sabadell

1.19

Gimnastic

0.73

Sabadell creates 63% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

1.21

creates per match

0.72

0.74

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Sabadell

1.21

Gimnastic

0.72

allows per match

Sabadell

0.74

Gimnastic

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

Gimnastic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw

77%

Sabadell or Gimnastic

70%

Draw or Gimnastic

53%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+

21%

Gimnastic wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals

70%

Sabadell 2+ goals

33%

Sabadell 3+ goals

12%

Gimnastic 1+ goals

52%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

17%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)

67%

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.74 · 57 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 1.21 + Gimnastic defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Gimnastic attack 0.72 + Sabadell defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sabadell scores more

47%

level

30%

Gimnastic scores more

23%

Sabadell at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Juanmi CarriónOwn goal

37'

N. Jimenez

46'

Adán Gurdiel← Juanmi Carrión

52'

C. Morgado

58'

M. Keita← Álex Gualda

58'

Sergi Altimira← Armando

59'

B. Hallebeek← Nil Jiménez

63'

Marc Álvarez← A. Lupu

70'

I. Athuman← Guillem Molina

70'

Ricard Pujol← César Morgado

78'

Èric Montes← Guillermo Fernández

78'

Pablo Fernández← Ander Gorostidi

78'

Robert Simón← Marc Fernández

90+5'

C. Herrera

Sabadell

Gimnastic

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

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🥅

▼

▼

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Manager: Miki Lladó

46'▲Adán Gurdiel←▼Juanmi Carrión

58'▲M. Keita←▼Álex Gualda

58'▲Sergi Altimira←▼Armando

70'▲I. Athuman←▼Guillem Molina

70'▲Ricard Pujol←▼César Morgado

Sabadell substitutes

GurdielKeitaAltimiraAthumanPujolLópezMarcVargasBaenaPuigKoptoun

Manager: Dani Vidal

59'▲B. Hallebeek←▼Nil Jiménez

63'▲Marc Álvarez←▼A. Lupu

78'▲Èric Montes←▼Guillermo Fernández

78'▲Pablo Fernández←▼Ander Gorostidi

78'▲Robert Simón←▼Marc Fernández

Gimnastic substitutes

HallebeekÁlvarezMontesFernándezSimónAndyParraBonillaGómezPochettino