Gimnastic 0–0 Sabadell: Result & Stats

Gimnastic

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sabadell

3/13/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Nou Estadi de Tarragona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Gimnastic39%

×Draw28%

Sabadell33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GimnasticExpected goals in this matchSabadell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.09

Gimnastic

1.21

Sabadell

1.09

Gimnastic creates 11% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

1.35

creates per match

1.23

0.96

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Gimnastic

1.35

Sabadell

1.23

allows per match

Gimnastic

0.96

Sabadell

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Sabadell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw

67%

Gimnastic or Sabadell

72%

Draw or Sabadell

61%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+

17%

Sabadell wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals

70%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

34%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

12%

Sabadell 1+ goals

66%

Sabadell 2+ goals

30%

Sabadell 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

54%

Sabadell (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Sabadell away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.35 + Sabadell defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sabadell attack 1.23 + Gimnastic defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gimnastic scores more

39%

level

28%

Sabadell scores more

33%

Gimnastic at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff