Gimnastic 2–0 Sabadell: Result & Stats

Gimnastic

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sabadell

Andy 74'

Jaume Jardí 59'

9/24/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Nou Estadi Costa Daurada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gimnastic63%

×Draw21%

Sabadell15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GimnasticExpected goals in this matchSabadell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.83

Gimnastic

1.94

Sabadell

0.83

Gimnastic creates 134% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.71

creates per match

0.95

0.71

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Gimnastic

1.71

Sabadell

0.95

allows per match

Gimnastic

0.71

Sabadell

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Sabadell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw

85%

Gimnastic or Sabadell

79%

Draw or Sabadell

37%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+

38%

Sabadell wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals

86%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

58%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

30%

Sabadell 1+ goals

56%

Sabadell 2+ goals

20%

Sabadell 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

80%

Sabadell (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Sabadell away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.71 + Sabadell defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sabadell attack 0.95 + Gimnastic defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Gimnastic scores more

63%

level

21%

Sabadell scores more

15%

Gimnastic at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

A. Moyano

20'

O. Sanz

45'

P. Fernandez

46'

Ander Gorostidi← Óscar Sanz

46'

Álex Gualda← Antonio Moyano

55'

Jaume Jardí← Marc Fernández

58'

Juanmi Carrión← Ricard Pujol

58'

V. Kopotun← Marcos Baselga

59'

Jaume Jardí

67'

Nando García← Pau Resta

69'

N. Garcia

71'

Nacho Gonzalez

71'

Gorka Santamaría← David Concha

74'

Andy

77'

Carlos Beitia← David Astals

83'

M. Pochettino← Andy

83'

Marc Álvarez← Pablo Fernández

89'

P. Monroy

Gimnastic

Sabadell

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Andy

▼

Sanz

▼

Fernández

Manager: Dani Vidal

46'▲Ander Gorostidi←▼Óscar Sanz

55'▲Jaume Jardí←▼Marc Fernández

71'▲Gorka Santamaría←▼David Concha

83'▲M. Pochettino←▼Andy

83'▲Marc Álvarez←▼Pablo Fernández

Gimnastic substitutes

GorostidiJardíSantamaríaPochettinoÁlvarezȚîrleaParraRecioMontalvoRodríguezDufur

Manager: Miki Lladó

46'▲Álex Gualda←▼Antonio Moyano

58'▲Juanmi Carrión←▼Ricard Pujol

58'▲V. Kopotun←▼Marcos Baselga

67'▲Nando García←▼Pau Resta

77'▲Carlos Beitia←▼David Astals

Sabadell substitutes

GualdaCarriónKopotunGarcíaBeitiaSánchezFarrésCallejónLealTouDomènechBallero