Sabadell 3–2 Atlético Baleares: Result & Stats

Sabadell

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Baleares

Sergio Cortés 90+15' (pen), 76' (pen)

Marc Marruecos 90+7'

0 Sergio Moreno 90+10'

Dani Plomer 88'

10/20/2024

League #877 · Group 3 - 8Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sabadell33%

×Draw25%

Atlético Baleares42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SabadellExpected goals in this matchAtlético Baleares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.53

Sabadell

1.33

Atlético Baleares

1.53

Atlético Baleares creates 15% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

1.40

1.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Sabadell

1.67

Atlético Baleares

1.40

allows per match

Sabadell

1.67

Atlético Baleares

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

Atlético Baleares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw

58%

Sabadell or Atlético Baleares

75%

Draw or Atlético Baleares

67%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+

15%

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals

74%

Sabadell 2+ goals

38%

Sabadell 3+ goals

15%

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

78%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

45%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)

44%

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 1.67 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Atlético Baleares attack 1.40 + Sabadell defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sabadell scores more

33%

level

25%

Atlético Baleares scores more

42%

Atlético Baleares at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

David Forniés← George Andrews

63'

Marc Marruecos← Iván Tébar

63'

Pau Velasco← Miguelete Ramírez

65'

Jaume Pascual← Gerardo Bonet

65'

Sergio Moreno← N. Marong

76'

Carlos Pérez← Gonpi

76'

Javier Morcillo← Arthur Bonaldo

76'

Sergio CortésPenalty

82'

Dani Plomer← Guillem Castell

82'

David Ortega← U. Taffertshofer

88'

Dani Plomer

90+3'

Miquel Ustrell← Alfredo Pedraza

90+7'

Marc Marruecos

90+10'

0 Sergio Moreno

90+15'

Sergio CortésPenalty

Sabadell

Atlético

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: David Català

63'▲Marc Marruecos←▼Iván Tébar

63'▲Pau Velasco←▼Miguelete Ramírez

76'▲Carlos Pérez←▼Gonpi

76'▲Javier Morcillo←▼Arthur Bonaldo

90+3'▲Miquel Ustrell←▼Alfredo Pedraza

Sabadell substitutes

MarruecosVelascoPérezMorcilloUstrellOrtegaUtgés

Manager: Jaume Mut

46'▲David Forniés←▼George Andrews

65'▲Jaume Pascual←▼Gerardo Bonet

65'▲Sergio Moreno←▼N. Marong

82'▲Dani Plomer←▼Guillem Castell

82'▲David Ortega←▼U. Taffertshofer

Atlético Baleares substitutes

ForniésPascualMorenoPlomerOrtegaSabalyRamis

League #877: Sabadell 3–2 Atlético Baleares

Sabadell beat Atlético Baleares 3-2 in League #877 on October 20, 2024.

Goals: Sergio Cortés (76' pen, 90+15' pen), Dani Plomer (88'), Marc Marruecos (90+7'), 0 Sergio Moreno (90+10').

The match was played at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta in Sabadell.

Sabadell vs Atlético Baleares — League #877 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #877: Sabadell 3–2 Atlético Baleares