Atlético Baleares 0–1 Sabadell: Result & Stats

Atlético Baleares

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sabadell

Álex Gualda 90+4'

1/15/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Atlético Baleares37%

×Draw28%

Sabadell35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético BalearesExpected goals in this matchSabadell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.14

Atlético Baleares

1.17

Sabadell

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

1.26

creates per match

1.23

1.04

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Atlético Baleares

1.26

Sabadell

1.23

allows per match

Atlético Baleares

1.04

Sabadell

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Sabadell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw

65%

Atlético Baleares or Sabadell

72%

Draw or Sabadell

63%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

15%

Sabadell wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

69%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

33%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

11%

Sabadell 1+ goals

68%

Sabadell 2+ goals

32%

Sabadell 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

51%

Sabadell (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

Sabadell away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 1.26 + Sabadell defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sabadell attack 1.23 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more

37%

level

28%

Sabadell scores more

35%

Atlético Baleares at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Lucas de Vega← Cordero

46'

Pau Victor← Armando

61'

K. Sibille← David Forniés

62'

MarcVargas← Guillem Molina

62'

Ricard Pujol← Juanmi Carrión

67'

C. Morgado

73'

Alfonso Martín← D. Petcoff

73'

U. Adighibe← Miguelete Ramírez

78'

Cristian Dieste← Sergi García

82'

Carlos Ramos← Laure

83'

I. Olaortua

86'

Álex Gualda← M. Keita

90+4'

Álex Gualda

Atlético

Sabadell

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Onésimo

46'▲Lucas de Vega←▼Cordero

61'▲K. Sibille←▼David Forniés

73'▲Alfonso Martín←▼D. Petcoff

73'▲U. Adighibe←▼Miguelete Ramírez

82'▲Carlos Ramos←▼Laure

Atlético Baleares substitutes

VegaSibilleMartínAdighibeRamosNavarroBaróRenéRamón

Manager: Miki Lladó

46'▲Pau Victor←▼Armando

62'▲MarcVargas←▼Guillem Molina

62'▲Ricard Pujol←▼Juanmi Carrión

78'▲Cristian Dieste←▼Sergi García

86'▲Álex Gualda←▼M. Keita

Sabadell substitutes

VictorMarcVargasPujolDiesteGualdaPiñolPuig

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Atlético Baleares 0–1 Sabadell

Sabadell beat Atlético Baleares 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 15, 2023.

Goals: Álex Gualda (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Balear in Palma de Mallorca, Illes Balears.

Atlético Baleares vs Sabadell — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Atlético Baleares 0–1 Sabadell