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Sabadell vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sabadell
Sabadell
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
4/30/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sabadell49%
×Draw29%
Atlético Baleares22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabadell
1.31
Atlético Baleares
0.78

Sabadell creates 68% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Sabadell
1.21
Atlético Baleares
0.82

allows per match

Sabadell
0.74
Atlético Baleares
1.42

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw
78%
Sabadell or Atlético Baleares
71%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
51%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+
23%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals
73%
Sabadell 2+ goals
38%
Sabadell 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
54%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
18%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)
69%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.74 · 57 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 1.21 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atlético Baleares attack 0.82 + Sabadell defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sabadell scores more
49%
level
29%
Atlético Baleares scores more
22%

Sabadell at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sabadell 3–1 Atlético Baleares

Sabadell beat Atlético Baleares 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta in Sabadell.