Sabadell 1–0 Albacete: Result & Stats

Sabadell

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Albacete

Sergio Aguza 66'

4/3/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sabadell45%

×Draw29%

Albacete26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SabadellExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.87

Sabadell

1.23

Albacete

0.87

Sabadell creates 41% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.21

creates per match

1.00

0.74

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sabadell

1.21

Albacete

1.00

allows per match

Sabadell

0.74

Albacete

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par

Albacete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw

74%

Sabadell or Albacete

71%

Draw or Albacete

55%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+

20%

Albacete wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals

71%

Sabadell 2+ goals

35%

Sabadell 3+ goals

13%

Albacete 1+ goals

58%

Albacete 2+ goals

22%

Albacete 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)

63%

Albacete (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.74 · 57 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 1.21 + Albacete defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Albacete attack 1.00 + Sabadell defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sabadell scores more

45%

level

29%

Albacete scores more

26%

Sabadell at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

J. Rodriganez

40'

Kaxe

46'

Óscar Rubio← Dani Sánchez

61'

A. E. Montes

64'

G. Molina

66'

Sergio Aguza

67'

Fran Álvarez← Sergi García

67'

Jordi Sánchez← Riki Rodríguez

76'

O. Rubio

76'

E. Attipoe← F. Boyomo

81'

Xavi Boniquet← Jacobo González

82'

X. Boniquet

84'

E. Gómez← Èric Montes

85'

F. García← Iago Indias

89'

Teo Quintero← Aarón Rey

Sabadell

Albacete

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Munitis

46'▲Óscar Rubio←▼Dani Sánchez

81'▲Xavi Boniquet←▼Jacobo González

85'▲F. García←▼Iago Indias

89'▲Teo Quintero←▼Aarón Rey

Sabadell substitutes

RubioBoniquetGarcíaQuinteroPlanasAstalsDopiLealRoyoEzzarfaniFolch

Manager: Rubén De La Barrera

67'▲Fran Álvarez←▼Sergi García

67'▲Jordi Sánchez←▼Riki Rodríguez

76'▲E. Attipoe←▼F. Boyomo

84'▲E. Gómez←▼Èric Montes

Albacete substitutes

ÁlvarezSánchezAttipoeGómezKawayaRosićMartínezLlinaresGálvezMedina

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sabadell 1–0 Albacete

Sabadell beat Albacete 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 3, 2022.

Goals: Sergio Aguza (66').

The match was played at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta in Sabadell.

Sabadell vs Albacete — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sabadell 1–0 Albacete