Albacete 3–0 Sabadell: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sabadell

R. Zozulya 62' (pen)

Álvaro Peña 52'

Álvaro Arroyo 34'

10/17/2020

Segunda División · Round 6Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Albacete42%

×Draw28%

Sabadell30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchSabadell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.02

Albacete

1.27

Sabadell

1.02

Albacete creates 25% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 21 away

1.25

creates per match

0.95

1.09

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Albacete

1.25

Sabadell

0.95

allows per match

Albacete

1.09

Sabadell

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par

Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Sabadell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

70%

Albacete or Sabadell

72%

Draw or Sabadell

58%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

19%

Sabadell wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

72%

Albacete 2+ goals

36%

Albacete 3+ goals

14%

Sabadell 1+ goals

64%

Sabadell 2+ goals

27%

Sabadell 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

59%

Sabadell (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.09 · 150 matches

Sabadell away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.25 + Sabadell defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sabadell attack 0.95 + Albacete defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Albacete scores more

42%

level

28%

Sabadell scores more

30%

Albacete at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Tomeu Nadal

Albacete · G

7.9

Match Events

34'

Álvaro Arroyo

51'

Eddy Silvestre

52'

Álvaro Peña↳ Manu Fuster

53'

K. Azamoum← E. İsrafilov

57'

Edgar Hernández← Aarón Rey

57'

Óscar Rubio← Néstor Querol

57'

Héber Pena← Juan Fernández

57'

Juan Hernández← Víctor García

61'

Aleix Coch Lucena

62'

R. ZozulyaPenalty

65'

Chema Núñez← Manu Fuster

65'

Ortuño← R. Zozulya

68'

Gorka Guruzeta← Stoichkov

79'

F. Boyomo← N. Gorosito

79'

David Del Pozo← Álvaro Jiménez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaceteSabadell

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots10

3Corners4

7Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots10

6On Target4

4Off Target4

1Blocked2

6Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

459Total Passes380

370Accurate Passes292

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2