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Sabadell vs Albacete — Segunda División 2018

Sabadell
Sabadell
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Albacete
Albacete
2/26/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 27Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sabadell38%
×Draw29%
Albacete32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabadell
1.14
Albacete
1.02

Sabadell creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 152 away

creates per match

Sabadell
0.95
Albacete
1.04

allows per match

Sabadell
1.00
Albacete
1.33

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par
Albacete+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

Albacete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw
68%
Sabadell or Albacete
71%
Draw or Albacete
62%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+
16%
Albacete wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals
68%
Sabadell 2+ goals
32%
Sabadell 3+ goals
11%
Albacete 1+ goals
64%
Albacete 2+ goals
27%
Albacete 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)
54%
Albacete (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.33 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 0.95 + Albacete defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Albacete attack 1.04 + Sabadell defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sabadell scores more
38%
level
29%
Albacete scores more
32%

Sabadell at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Sabadell 0–0 Albacete

Sabadell and Albacete drew 0-0 in Segunda División on February 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta in Sabadell.