RW Oberhausen U19 vs Köln U19: Preview & Prediction

RW Oberhausen U19

CANC

10:00

Köln U19

12/6/2020

U19 Bundesliga · West - 9Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1929%

×Draw23%

Köln U1948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RW Oberhausen U19Expected goals in this matchKöln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.86

RW Oberhausen U19

1.40

Köln U19

1.86

Köln U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 75 away

1.64

creates per match

2.12

1.60

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.64

Köln U19

2.12

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.60

Köln U19

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw

52%

RW Oberhausen U19 or Köln U19

77%

Draw or Köln U19

71%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

13%

Köln U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

75%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

41%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

17%

Köln U19 1+ goals

84%

Köln U19 2+ goals

55%

Köln U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Köln U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches

Köln U19 away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.15 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.64 + Köln U19 defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.40

Köln U19 attack 2.12 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

29%

level

23%

Köln U19 scores more

48%

Köln U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: RW Oberhausen U19 host Köln U19

December 6, 2020: RW Oberhausen U19 take on Köln U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

RW Oberhausen U19 host Köln U19 at Stadion Niederrhein.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

RW Oberhausen U19 vs Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: RW Oberhausen U19 host Köln U19