Köln U19 1–2 RW Oberhausen U19: Result & Stats

Köln U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

RW Oberhausen U19

J. Potočnik 12'

F. Geißler 67'

D. Burghard 18'

10/4/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 5Franz-Kremer-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Köln U1965%

×Draw19%

RW Oberhausen U1916%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Köln U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.05

Köln U19

2.29

RW Oberhausen U19

1.05

Köln U19 creates 118% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 49 away

2.49

creates per match

1.20

0.90

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Köln U19

2.49

RW Oberhausen U19

1.20

allows per match

Köln U19

0.90

RW Oberhausen U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Köln U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köln U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Köln U19 or draw

84%

Köln U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

81%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

35%

Winning margin

Köln U19 wins by 2+

42%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Köln U19 1+ goals

90%

Köln U19 2+ goals

66%

Köln U19 3+ goals

40%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

65%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

28%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Köln U19 (draw refunded)

80%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köln U19 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 0.90 · 71 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köln U19 attack 2.49 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.29

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.20 + Köln U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Köln U19 scores more

65%

level

19%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

16%

Köln U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

J. Potočnik

18'

D. Burghard

32'

L. Cortijo-Lange← D. Downs

58'

A. Terzi← J. Symalla

65'

L. Simnica← M. Wagner

65'

F. Geißler← J. Mulamba

67'

F. Geißler

76'

T. Böhm← O. Hot

76'

W. Izuwa← E. Özat

83'

J. Krautkrämer← N. Telle

Köln

RW

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: S. Ruthenbeck

32'▲L. Cortijo-Lange←▼D. Downs

65'▲L. Simnica←▼M. Wagner

83'▲J. Krautkrämer←▼N. Telle

Köln U19 substitutes

Cortijo-LangeSimnicaKrautkrämerBußmannBeckerHöhnThieltges

Manager: M. Kaya

58'▲A. Terzi←▼J. Symalla

65'▲F. Geißler←▼J. Mulamba

76'▲T. Böhm←▼O. Hot

76'▲W. Izuwa←▼E. Özat

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

TerziGeißlerBöhmIzuwaPlathTwumasiSimakis