Köln U19 7–1 RW Oberhausen U19: Result & Stats

Köln U19

FT

7 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

RW Oberhausen U19

Jacob Jansen 86'

S. Müller 66', 61'

B. Özden 54'

J. Schwirten 18'

T. Lemperle 15'

S. Cestic 2'

L. Geishauser 84'

11/23/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Ovest - 12Franz-Kremer-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Köln U1964%

×Draw19%

RW Oberhausen U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Köln U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.06

Köln U19

2.25

RW Oberhausen U19

1.06

Köln U19 creates 112% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 48 away

2.46

creates per match

1.21

0.91

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Köln U19

2.46

RW Oberhausen U19

1.21

allows per match

Köln U19

0.91

RW Oberhausen U19

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Köln U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köln U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Köln U19 or draw

83%

Köln U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

81%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

36%

Winning margin

Köln U19 wins by 2+

41%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Köln U19 1+ goals

89%

Köln U19 2+ goals

65%

Köln U19 3+ goals

39%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

65%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

29%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Köln U19 (draw refunded)

79%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köln U19 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.91 · 70 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.04 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köln U19 attack 2.46 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.25

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.21 + Köln U19 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Köln U19 scores more

64%

level

19%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

17%

Köln U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

15'

18'

39'

54'

57'

F. Lanser← E. Islamović

57'

J. Berg← B. Özden

57'

L. Geishauser← A. Marković

61'

S. Müller

65'

Jacob Jansen← J. Schwirten

66'

S. Müller

69'

E. Gercek← M. Heck

73'

B. Ksiouar← S. Papalia

79'

E. Bilgin← E. Surmanski

84'

L. Geishauser

86'

Jacob Jansen

Köln

RW

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Schwirten

⚽2

Müller

⚽

Lemperle

⚽

▼

Özden

Manager: S. Ruthenbeck

57'▲F. Lanser←▼E. Islamović

57'▲J. Berg←▼B. Özden

65'▲Jacob Jansen←▼J. Schwirten

73'▲B. Ksiouar←▼S. Papalia

Köln U19 substitutes

LanserBergJansenKsiouarDahmenRoloffÖrnek

Manager: D. Pappas

39'▲B. Saglam←▼F. Cakmak

57'▲L. Geishauser←▼A. Marković

69'▲E. Gercek←▼M. Heck

79'▲E. Bilgin←▼E. Surmanski

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

SaglamGeishauserGercekBilginNachitPomorinFleer

U19 Bundesliga: Köln U19 7–1 RW Oberhausen U19

Köln U19 beat RW Oberhausen U19 7-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 23, 2019.

Goals: S. Cestic (2'), T. Lemperle (15'), J. Schwirten (18'), B. Özden (54'), S. Müller (61', 66'), L. Geishauser (84'), Jacob Jansen (86').

The match was played at Franz-Kremer-Stadion in Köln.

Köln U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Köln U19 7–1 RW Oberhausen U19