Ružomberok 1–1 Liptovský Mikuláš: Result & Stats

Ružomberok

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Liptovský Mikuláš

J. Hladík 21'

E. Jendrišek 51' (pen)

10/25/2023

League #680 · 4th RoundFutbalový štadión MFK Ružomberok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ružomberok42%

×Draw22%

Liptovský Mikuláš36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RužomberokExpected goals in this matchLiptovský Mikuláš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.67

Ružomberok

1.83

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.67

Ružomberok creates 10% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

1.33

2.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ružomberok

1.67

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.33

allows per match

Ružomberok

2.00

Liptovský Mikuláš

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ružomberok+0.00on par

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ružomberok ↓

Liptovský Mikuláš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Ružomberok or draw

64%

Ružomberok or Liptovský Mikuláš

78%

Draw or Liptovský Mikuláš

58%

Winning margin

Ružomberok wins by 2+

22%

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ružomberok 1+ goals

84%

Ružomberok 2+ goals

54%

Ružomberok 3+ goals

28%

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals

81%

Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals

50%

Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Ružomberok (draw refunded)

54%

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ružomberok at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Liptovský Mikuláš away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ružomberok attack 1.67 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.33 + Ružomberok defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ružomberok scores more

42%

level

22%

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more

36%

Ružomberok at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ružomberok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

J. Hladík

50'

V. Uradnik

51'

E. JendrišekPenalty

56'

A. Selecký← J. Hladík

56'

M. Chrien← Š. Gerec

56'

M. Zsigmund← S. Lavrinčík

56'

S. Šefčík← M. Chobot

75'

J. Teplan← L. Bielak

89'

J. Klimek

Ružomberok

Liptovský

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Hladík

Manager: O. Smetana

56'▲A. Selecký←▼J. Hladík

56'▲M. Chrien←▼Š. Gerec

56'▲M. Zsigmund←▼S. Lavrinčík

56'▲S. Šefčík←▼M. Chobot

Ružomberok substitutes

SeleckýChrienZsigmundŠefčíkJackuliakŤapajMasloŠvehlaMalý

Manager: J. Haspra

75'▲J. Teplan←▼L. Bielak

Liptovský Mikuláš substitutes

TeplanLehotskýŠtrbaIseniHúskaCapkoKuchárikStašMazanovský