Rukh Vynnyky 1–1 Minai: Result & Stats

Rukh Vynnyky

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Minai

11/14/2022

Premier League · Round 13Arena L'viv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Rukh Vynnyky50%

×Draw27%

Minai23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rukh VynnykyExpected goals in this matchMinai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.88

Rukh Vynnyky

1.44

Minai

0.88

Rukh Vynnyky creates 64% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 53 away

1.15

creates per match

0.60

1.16

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Rukh Vynnyky

1.15

Minai

0.60

allows per match

Rukh Vynnyky

1.16

Minai

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rukh Vynnyky+0.00on par

Minai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rukh Vynnyky ↓

Minai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rukh Vynnyky or draw

77%

Rukh Vynnyky or Minai

73%

Draw or Minai

50%

Winning margin

Rukh Vynnyky wins by 2+

25%

Minai wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rukh Vynnyky 1+ goals

76%

Rukh Vynnyky 2+ goals

42%

Rukh Vynnyky 3+ goals

18%

Minai 1+ goals

59%

Minai 2+ goals

22%

Minai 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rukh Vynnyky (draw refunded)

69%

Minai (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rukh Vynnyky at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

Minai away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rukh Vynnyky attack 1.15 + Minai defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.44

Minai attack 0.60 + Rukh Vynnyky defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rukh Vynnyky scores more

50%

level

27%

Minai scores more

23%

Rukh Vynnyky at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rukh Vynnyky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff